Lucky Break

When your market runs cold and you can’t catch a break, keep your chin up.

When your market runs hot and you’re winning, don’t let it go to your head.

I’ve just come out of a very hard month.

August felt like it would go on forever.

Not as many deals as usual. In fact, it was very quiet.

I couldn’t find much to buy which meant that I also couldn’t sell much either.

Compounding this was my city’s government mandated lockdown.

It’s illegal to travel further than 5km from your home.

No one wants to sell, cause they’re all stuck at home too.

So no one will sell, and even if they did no one would come to buy.

But I kept faithfully digging through my markets.

Diligently offering on the goods I could find.

Even when it felt hopeless, I still checked twice an hour.

This is what I meant about hot streaks and cold streaks.

When you’re playing a statistics game, you don’t get even breaks.

Say your model gives you 1 win per 10 offers. An outrageously successful model.

That doesn’t mean you’re going to make 9 offers and then the 10th is always the winner.

It never goes like that.

You might get 3 wins and 27 rejections.

Followed by 2 wins and 18 rejections.

Or in my case, 20 days of rejections followed by 4 days of accepted offers.

The randomness of the markets will break you if you let it.

None of this is ordered. There are no patterns except those that you imagine.

But you must never give up – this might be the final few yards before your victory.

Your lucky break might be moments away.

But if you give up, I assure you that your luck will never change.

The only way to win is to keep going.

Stay the course.

These last four days, I’ve bought about $1900 of goods to sell.

Based on experience, these will get me $600 of profit.

If I’d quit before I reached the break, I’d never get that profit.

So can you see why persistence matters so much?

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